A Different Tomorrow
We make decisions for a person we haven’t yet become, often forgetting how much we still have left to change.
By James Gibb
June 26, 2023
In 2007, I was featured in the business section of The Scotsman, a Scottish newspaper, as part of a Question & Answer profile in my new role as marketing manager for Dell Technologies in Scotland. (It was my 15 seconds of fame.) When asked, “Which band would you like to play in?”, I responded, Kings of Leon. Though they were a band I listened to a lot at the time, I can’t remember the last time I listened to them. If asked that question again today, there would be a hundred bands ahead of them.
Change is always working away on us, forever in our rear-view mirror, as meticulous and calibrated as a Swish timepiece. Sometimes we see it there, sometimes we don’t. Our preferences can change significantly too as the years pass. The beach holiday a decade ago might not have the same pull as a European city break does today. But it’s not just a matter of changing tastes. Our values and personalities can also evolve considerably over time.
Yet, we are poor forecasters of these important shifts.
This shortcoming can in large part be explained by the “end of history illusion”, a psychological tendency to believe that who we are now is who we will be for the rest of our lives. Without understanding this illusion, we may face some pretty big hurdles in our decision-making, particularly in major life choices.
From poet to punk
Patti Smith, hailed as the “godmother of punk”, initially dreamt of becoming a poet. She even moved to New York City in her early twenties to immerse herself in the flourishing poetry scene. Yet, the shy, bookish girl she was then contrasts starkly with the outspoken, influential figure she would later become in the music industry. In her memoir, Just Kids, Smith reflects on her unexpected personal transformation, making it clear she hadn’t anticipated the enormous shifts her life and identity would take.
We can’t always predict how our future selves will change. Harvard psychologist Dan Gilbert notes that “Human beings are works in progress that mistakenly think they’re finished.” Gilbert is a co-author of the influential study I mentioned earlier, “The End of History Illusion.” He and his colleagues surveyed over 19,000 people ranging in age from 18 to 68. The study found considerable changes in people’s tastes, values, and behaviours throughout their lives, with all age groups underestimating the extent of their future changes. Hence the term “end of history illusion”.
The transformative power of time
In a TED Talk following his research, Gilbert asked a critical question, “Why do we make decisions that our future selves often regret?” His answer: a fundamental misconception about the power of time.
“Time transforms our preferences, reshapes our values, and alters our personalities,” Gilbert explained.
We seem to appreciate this fact, but only when we look back. When we look at our present selves, we have a natural tendency to believe the person we are today will be the same person tomorrow. We view ourselves as stable and unchanging. We think the present is a watershed, the moment we finally become ourselves. But the person you are now is as fleeting as all the people you have ever been.
Behind the curtain of this illusion is our ability to recognise the dramatic changes we’ve experienced in the past. Think about the last ten or twenty years: family, work, friendships, interests, convictions, the things you once thought would always matter. The difference—and growth—between your past and current self is clear. However, when thinking about the future, we often project our present self into the future, failing to account for the transformations that further time, experience, and circumstances will likely bring about.
Underestimating future changes can be a problem
Underestimating future changes in our personalities, goals, and desires can be a problem. We often make decisions for our future selves based on our present self, which can lead to regret when our future selves disapprove of the choices made by our past selves. This tendency affects us in two significant ways.
If we consider our current selves as the ‘final product’, we may limit opportunities for change, learning, and experience. This perspective can make us less open to change and new experiences that could benefit us.
The illusion can widen the psychological distance between our present and future selves. Studies show we tend to care less about our future selves because we perceive them as somewhat alien. This perception can lead to behaviours that disregard our future happiness, such as neglecting health or financial planning for the future.
The importance of other perspectives
Our perceptions of ourselves are not always accurate, and external perspectives can provide valuable insights. When Stephen King wrote what would become his first published novel, Carrie, he was struggling with self-doubt. He threw away the initial pages of the manuscript, convinced it was a failure. It was his wife, Tabitha, who rescued the discarded pages and urged him to continue. Despite his reservations, King pressed on, inspired by her faith in his abilities. Carrie became a massive success, launching King’s career as a master storyteller.
King’s story illustrates the “end of history illusion” in two ways. First, his initial scepticism about the book’s potential success shows his inability to visualise the growth and success that awaited his future self. Second, his wife’s encouragement highlights the importance of external perspectives in helping us see the possibilities for future change. While King saw a continuation of his struggles, his wife saw a different future, one where King’s talent would be recognised and celebrated.
Living with a future self in mind
As human beings, complex and dynamic, our identities are always being remoulded in varying degrees by our ongoing experiences and circumstances. Knowing this, a few ideas seem worth considering when we think about the person we may become in the years to come.
Keep letting things in. A curious and open-minded attitude makes us more available to new possibilities. Reading, courses, conversations, and reflection all give the future self more material to work with.
Leave some room inside your plans. While having a clear vision can be beneficial, it’s also worth remembering goals can change considerably, just as we do. And it’s not just goals that can change, but also values, preferences, and circumstances. The more rigid the plan, the more we are tied to it. And a future version of us may see things differently.
The future still begins here. While we often think about the future, the reality is the present is still the only place decisions are made. So, paying closer attention to our current needs and values can help us make better decisions for that future, whatever it may bring. Jon Kabat-Zinn’s Wherever You Go, There You Are remains a pretty accessible exploration of mindfulness. I read it recently.
Build some capacity for uncertainty. While nobody knows for sure what the future has in store for us, we can safely assume there will be some trying moments. Our ability to cope with the effects of adversity and the blows of life still depend on a few things largely within our control: the relationships we have with other people for support, how good we are at keeping perspective and a sense of calm, and professional help when needed.
The person still becoming
The “end of history illusion” highlights the importance of maintaining some openness to change in all aspects of our lives. By recognising we are—and always will be—works in progress, we can make decisions catering not just to our present selves, but to the multiple future selves we might become.
That doesn't remove regret or uncertainty, but it may give us a little more humility about the person we are today, and the person we are still becoming.
And as for the band I’d like to play in today? Ask me again in ten years.
Read more of my earlier writing here.